It has been one of the more interesting years as far as the island’s politics goes, although whether the developments we’ve seen extend into 2025, when there is likely to be a General Election, remain to be seen.

The year 2024 saw a rise in the number of independent candidates — the so-called Swanite movement, as it was driven by former premier Sir John Swan.

The Free Democratic Movement was reborn and more organised, and the One Bermuda Alliance continued its comeback as a political force under the leadership of Jarion Richardson.

There were also two by-elections, which were revealing in their results, and the ruling Progressive Labour Party was also rocked by two Cabinet resignations — Kathy Lynn Simmons, the Attorney-General and Minister of Legal Affairs and Constitutional Reform, Vance Campbell, the Minister of the Cabinet Office.

It was the rise of independent candidates that really caught the political eye as, powered by Sir John, a National Hero and Bermuda’s longest-serving premier, a movement developed and quickly gained traction.

Sir John was the first to run as an independent candidate, standing in the by-election for Smith’s North.

In a wide-ranging interview before the election, he said he wanted to encourage more people to put themselves forward as independents because the Westminster system of government in Bermuda was broken, with party loyalty the priority.

“My hope is that when you take away the party politics, people see that they don't have to be involved in a tribal process, but be an independent thinker and participant in the process so that their loyalty is to the voter and to the people,” he said.

The by-election was won by the OBA’s Robert King, but revealingly, Sir John finished second, beating the PLP into third place.

Mr King polled 209 votes, Sir John 184 and the PLP’s Lindsay Simmons secured 181 votes.

Sir John later said that he intended to launch a forum to bring political change after his performance at the by-election.

In an opinion article in The Royal Gazette, he wrote: “This forum will create a new dialogue for Bermuda and interested people, discussing how the change that we agree is needed can be delivered.

“Make no mistake, the political parties have sophisticated political machinery, computer databases and people who spend many hours plotting how they can achieve political success for their party.

“The forum I speak of will seek rather to encourage a new movement, build momentum for change.”

Here it should be noted that the by-election was called because Michael Dunkley, a former OBA premier and United Bermuda Party MP, resigned from politics.

Paying tribute to Mr Dunkley, Mr Richardson, said: “He is someone who embodies the principles of service and love of country, and someone who has stood firm and fast in the interests of Bermuda.

“His name will be etched in Bermuda history, and I am thankful to have known him in his time of politics.”

The retirement from politics of Mr Dunkley was one of four such announcements delivered in 2024, although Lieutenant-Colonel David Burch, the Minister of Public Works, and Walter Roban, the Deputy Premier and Minister of Home Affairs, will remain in their posts until the next General Election.

The second by-election of 2024 saw another independent candidate, Ci’re Bean, stand in Sandys North.

It made the contest a four-way fight with FDM leader Marc Bean trying for the second time to get elected in the seat, and Carl Neblett for the OBA.

A PLP stronghold, the result was probably never in doubt, but nonetheless the turnout was down and the votes showed: for the PLP, the Reverend Emily Gail Dill won 162 votes, Mr Bean won 108, Ci’re Bean 95 and Mr Neblett 91.

This year, others declared their intent on standing as independents — and as seen, they did get votes, but can they upset the established order in 2025?

A General Election is likely, so we will find out.

For Mr Bean, the most visible and experienced member of the FDM, the result had to be disappointing.

Under his leadership, 2024 saw a resurgent FDM — there were some policy announcements on housing and education, some opinion articles and the appointment of a new chairman, but it was the former PLP leader who was by far the most visible member.

It contested just the one by-election and has said it was focusing its energies on the next General Election, but to date it is only Mr Bean who has been declared as an FDM candidate.

The Sandys North by-election was called because of the resignation of the former attorney-general, a significant development but not entirely surprising.

The other, however, came out of the blue, as a disillusioned Mr Campbell crossed the floor and joined the OBA.

Opening up about his reasons for quitting the PLP, Mr Campbell said the PLP was “good at politics but not very good at governing” and insisted that the OBA could win the next General Election.

In another wide-ranging interview, he claimed that there was “turmoil” within the PLP.

Asked for specifics, he said: “There’s warring factions. Those who want David Burt gone as the leader and obviously his attempts to stay in power.”

It is extremely likely that there will be a General Election in 2025, and although the Premier has accepted that the PLP may lose seats, with a 22-seat majority a change in government is not really on the cards.

What will be interesting is which party or entity picks up the seats that the Establishment loses.